Windows 8's uptake falls behind Vista's pace

With just a week left in the month, Windows 8's usage uptake has slipped behind Vista's at the same point in its release, data from a Web measurement company showed.

According to Net Applications, Windows 8's online usage share through Dec. 22 was 1.6% of all Windows PCs, an uptick from 1.2% of November. Windows 8 publicly launched on Oct. 26.

At the same two-month mark in Vista's release timetable, that OS accounted for 2.2% of all Windows systems, double the month prior.

Net Applications measures operating system usage by recording the specific operating system and version used by the machines of visitors to approximately 40,000 sites it monitors for clients.

The slowdown in uptake of Windows 8 and its poor performance compared to Vista is a troubling sign for the new operating system. Vista has been labeled a rare Microsoft failure, in part because it was adopted by far fewer customers than either its predecessor, Windows XP, or its successor, Windows 7.

Vista's online usage share peaked in the fall of 2009 at 20.3% of all Windows systems.

While there are nine days of Windows 8 data for December still to be released by Net Applications -- including Christmas, when a substantial number of Windows 8 PCs may have been given as gifts, and thus not included in the online estimates -- the new OS would have to record an amazing usage jump during December's final week to put it on par with Vista's 2007 pace.

By Computerworld's calculations, Windows 8's share of all Microsoft-powered PCs would have to leap to 4% in December's final week to equal Vista's second-month total. To give an idea of the magnitude of that required fourth-week increase, Net Applications said that Windows 8's share of all Windows PCs for the week ending Dec. 22 was 1.7%, and for the week ending Dec. 15, was 1.6%.

Net Applications' statistics continue to corroborate data from others that show Windows 8 has not generated the PC sales "pop" historically seen after the launch of a new Microsoft OS. In late November, the NPD Group said that in four weeks surrounding Windows 8's Oct. 26 debut, 21% fewer PCs were sold to U.S. consumers than during the same period in 2011.

Newer NPD numbers, cited by the New York Times last weekend, said U.S. consumer sales of Windows machines from late October through the first week of December were down 13% compared to the same stretch last year.

And even if Windows 8 makes a showing strong enough this month to match Vista, it will continue to have difficulty keeping pace: By the end of Vista's third month, it accounted for 3.3% of all copies of Windows. To equal that, Windows 8 would have to double its current share by the end of January 2013.

Windows 8's uptake trajectory fell behind Vista's for the first time this month. Note: Windows 8's usage share is through Dec. 22 only. (Data: Net Applications.)

Windows 8's uptake was even more sluggish when compared to Windows 7, the 2009 operating system that has flourished as much as Vista flopped.

By the end of its second month of availability, Windows 7 accounted for 6.2% of all Windows machines, or nearly four times that of Windows 8 as of Dec. 22.

At this point, it looks virtually impossible for Windows 8 to do as well as its immediate predecessor, at least in the short run: At the end of Windows 7's third month -- analogous to Jan. 31, 2013 for Windows 8 -- it had gained another two percentage points to end with an 8.2% share of all Windows systems.

In fact, Windows 7 continued to gain share in December, according to preliminary numbers from Net Applications. Through Dec. 22, Windows 7's usage share of all personal computers was 45.6%, or nine-tenths of a percentage point higher than at the end of November.

To put that in perspective, Windows 7 gained more than twice the share through Dec. 22 than did Windows 8.

Windows 8's failure to stay abreast of Windows 7 or even Vista is not hard to explain, said analysts, who have been predicting a weak reception for the new operating system, blaming a weak economy, the OS's confusing dual user interfaces, enterprise upgrade fatigue after migrating to Windows 7, and competition from rivals' tablets -- including Apple's iPad, Amazon's Kindle and Google's Nexus -- for customers' technology dollars.

Neither Vista nor Windows 7, of course, had to face competition from tablets.

And that, experts have said, is paramount. Because Windows' success is directly tied to the number of new PCs sold, sluggish system sales caused by defections to tablets translates into a slow-down in operating system's uptake.

And people, whether consumers or enterprise workers, are increasingly turning to tablets -- virtually all of which run a non-Microsoft OS -- as their preferred mobile device, reducing sales growth of Windows notebooks and generally stretching everyone's PC refresh cycle. Research firm IDC, for instance, recently raised its 2012 tablet sales forecast to 122 million devices, up 72% from 2011.

Earlier this year, IDC said that total worldwide PC shipments would reach 367 million in 2012, less than 1% above 2011's 364 million.

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer, on Google+ or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed. His email address is gkeizer@computerworld.com.

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Windows 8 PC orders weak, says analyst

Computer sellers have scaled back their expectations of the sales pop they'll get from Windows 8 this year, an analyst said today.

Brian White, of Topeka Capital Markets, said that his checks of Asian computer manufacturers -- the relatively unknown firms that build desktop and notebook PCs to specifications issued by the likes of Hewlett-Packard and Dell -- found that orders last month climbed by less than half the average of the last seven years.

"With all of the sales numbers out for our ODM Barometer, October sales rose by 2% month-over-month and below the average performance of up 5% over the past seven years," White said in a note to clients earlier this month. "This is weaker than our preliminary estimate of up 5% month-over-month in October and speaks to the continued challenges in the PC market."

White's ODM Barometer -- ODM for "original device manufacturer" -- is a metric of sales by the Asian companies that assemble PCs for brand-name computer sellers. It does not show sales of those PCs to buyers, but hints at the orders those computer sellers have placed for inventory.

The ODM Barometer for October was also down in a year-over-year comparison, repeating a less substantial slide in September, White said.

"The sales cycle has decelerated further into negative territory, dropping to down 13% year-over-year in October from down 9% in September," he wrote. "This weakness is unusual given that PCs with Windows 8 and new ultrabook products are ramping."

PC sellers had hoped that the release of Windows 8 would kick-start sales, which first flattened, then fell in the face of still-unsettled economies and fierce competition from smartphones and tablets for customers' dollars.

It seems that computer sellers expected more from Windows 8 earlier this year, but have since rethought, said White. "Sales [by ODMs] in October will clearly be helped by the ramp of Windows 8, [but they're] much lower than the PC makers originally expected a few months ago."

His conclusion: "The macro [economic] weakness is weighing in on PC demand and the plethora of new tablets is driving more conservatism on the part of the PC makers," he said in an email reply to follow-up questions.

The result: "The Windows 8 ramp is much lower than expected a few months ago, partly related to these issues and others," White said.

ODM sales -- again, a harbinger of orders placed by computer sellers for future PC deliveries -- this year were also weak when compared to the months leading up to Windows 7's launch in 2009.

"During October 2009, sales rose a similar 2% month-over-month," White added in his email. "However, the three prior months [then] were much stronger than July, August and September of this year."

Previously, Computerworld has tracked usage patterns of Windows 8 in the months leading up to, and including, the Oct. 26 launch, and found that the new operating system is being run by less than a fifth as many people as ran Windows 7 in the same months before its debut.

Although many analysts and Microsoft watchers have cautioned that it is too early to conclude that Windows 8 sales -- and by extension, those of Windows 8 PCs -- are sluggish, others, including David Johnson of Forrester and Paul Thurrott, who writes the popular "Supersite for Windows" blog and is the co-author of Windows 8 Secrets, have claimed that that is exactly what is happening.

Thurrott, who last week cited unnamed sources within Microsoft, said that Windows 8 sales were below the company's internal projections and had been called "disappointing" internally. According to Thurrott, Microsoft has put the blame at the feet of its OEMs (original computer manufacturers), the vendors that contract with ODMs to build their wares.

Matt Hamblen covers mobile and wireless, smartphones and other handhelds, and wireless networking for Computerworld. Follow Matt on Twitter at @matthamblen or subscribe to Matt's RSS feed. His email address is mhamblen@computerworld.com.

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Microsoft moves to relegate Windows 7 to second-class status

As Microsoft goes full speed ahead on Windows 8, a number of signs suggest that Windows 7 is fading fast in Redmonds rear view mirror.

On Monday, Microsoft program manager Daniel Moth confirmed in a support forum that DirectX 11.1 will only work with Windows 8. The company has no plan to bring DirectX to earlier versions of Windowsincluding Windows 7.

DirectX 11.1, Microsofts API for 3D graphics, isnt a major update from DirectX 11, but it adds features to take advantage of high-end graphics processors. It also includes native support for Stereoscopic 3D. The news will mainly affect gamers who want to keep upgrading their rigs but would rather not move to Windows 8.

Thats not the only indication that Microsoft is starting to leave Windows 7 behind. Reportedly, Microsoft wont release a second service pack for Windows 7, unnamed sources told The Register last month, and the company does not plan to offer an Xbox Music app for its older operating systems. For Windows Phone 8 users, Windows 8 has a slick modern-style app for syncing and viewing media, whereas Windows 7 only has a more bare-bones Windows Phone app for the desktop.

To be clear, Microsoft will support Windows 7 through 2015, meaning that itll offer both security and non-security updates for free. Extended support, which provides free security updates but requires a subscription for other hotfixes, will continue through 2020.

But when it comes to individual applications and services, Microsoft is starting to move on. Even Internet Explorer 10, which is already available on Windows 8, is only getting a preview version for Windows 7 this month, with no word on final availability.

Its not unprecedented that Microsoft would start treating its older operating systems as second-class software. After all, Office 2013 wont support Windows Vista or XP, and neither will Internet Explorer 10. Still, the Microsofts willingness to leave Windows 7 behind in some areas shows just how eager the company is to push Windows 8, lest we forget how big of a bet this new operating system is for Microsoft.

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Microsoft patches critical flaws in Windows 8, Windows RT

Microsoft today patched 19 vulnerabilities in Windows, Internet Explorer 9 (IE9), Excel and the .Net development framework, including four flaws in the just-released Windows 8 and its tablet spin-off Windows RT.

Of Tuesday's six security updates, four were labeled "critical," Microsoft's most-severe threat ranking, while the remaining pair were pegged as "important" or "moderate." Of the 19 vulnerabilities patched today, seven were tagged as critical.

"The IE9 [bulletin] is the one that should be patched first," said Andrew Storms, director of security operations at nCircle Security, in an interview today. "It's a drive-by," he added, referring to the tactic that only requires hackers to trick users into browsing to a malicious website.

Doing that with an unpatched copy of IE9 could result in a successful hijacking of a Windows 7 or Vista PC. IE9 only runs on those two operating systems.

No other versions of Microsoft's browser, including the new IE10, were affected by MS12-071. IE10 is bundled with Windows 8 and Windows RT, and today shipped as a "Release Preview" for Windows 7.

Storms put MS12-075 second on today's to-do list.

That update patches three vulnerabilities in Windows kernel mode drivers, one of which was labeled critical. The latter was a bug in the operating system's parsing of TrueType fonts, which could be exploited only by determined attackers, said Storms.

"Despite the fact that it looks nasty, it's not very realistic to expect working exploits," argued Storms, ticking off the many requirements for a successful attack, including the need to spoof a proxy server.

Microsoft rated the bug as "2" on its exploitability index, the company's threat estimate, essentially agreeing with Storms. "Exploit code would be difficult to build," Microsoft said of the TrueType bug.

That vulnerability was reported to Microsoft by Google's bug bounty program. In late September, Google paid a pair of researchers $5,000 for rooting out the vulnerability, part of a $29,500 payday for nine different researchers.

Windows 8 and Windows RT harbored four of the 19 bugs, three of them critical and the fourth ranked important.

The two critical flaws in MS12-072 were pegged for Windows 8 and its offspring, as was the TrueType font bug in MS12-075 and one of the vulnerabilities in MS12-074, which patched all versions of the .Net framework.

A Windows RT-related vulnerability was also fixed in MS12-076, an update for all versions of Excel, including the one within Office RT, the mini-suite bundled with Microsoft's tablet OS. Only the not-yet-available-at-retail Excel 2013 escaped unscathed.

"I'm sure Microsoft is disappointed to have released Windows 8 in late October and have already issued patches for it," said Storms. "But truth be told, a lot of code is reused, and it shouldn't be surprising to see bug fixes in Windows 8. Despite all the hype about newer platforms being the most secure, bugs will be found and bugs will be fixed."

November's six security updates can be downloaded and installed via the Microsoft Update and Windows Update services, as well as through WSUS.

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer, on Google+ or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed. His email address is gkeizer@computerworld.com.

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